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A new modeling study projects that as electric vehicles replace gasoline cars, tire-wear particles could become a larger share of traffic-related air pollution.
The analysis estimates EV-related tire-wear emissions could rise steeply through 2044, driven mainly by fleet growth and higher average vehicle weight.
Researchers say tailpipe pollution still falls with electrification, but non-exhaust sources such as tires, road abrasion, and resuspended dust will matter more.
The findings add urgency to work on longer-lasting tires, lighter vehicles, and policies that curb overall vehicle miles traveled.
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The rapid shift to electric vehicles is cutting tailpipe pollution in many places. But a new study suggests an unexpected side effect is growing harder to ignore: more airborne particle pollution from tires as the vehicle fleet becomes heavier and larger.
## What the study modeled
The new research projects how tire-wear particles could change in the United States from 2024 to 2044 as electric vehicles (EVs) take a larger share of the fleet. It uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s MOVES emissions modeling framework, and aligns electrification assumptions with federal energy outlook scenarios.
The study focuses on “non-exhaust” pollution. That term covers particles not coming from the tailpipe, including tire wear, road surface abrasion, and dust that traffic kicks back into the air.
Unlike exhaust emissions, which can drop quickly with cleaner engines or full electrification, non-exhaust sources are tied closely to basic physics: friction between rubber and road, braking forces, and how much mass vehicles carry.
## Key findings: EV tire-wear emissions rise sharply
The study’s central estimate is that tire-wear particle emissions from EVs could rise about 17-fold over the 20-year period it modeled. It also projects EVs could account for nearly 40% of total tire-wear particle emissions by 2044.
For fine particles, the study estimates EV-related PM2.5 from tire wear increases from about 0.1 kilotons in 2024 to nearly 2.0 kilotons by 2044. For PM10, it projects an increase from about 0.2 kilotons to nearly 3.1 kilotons over the same period. The study includes an uncertainty band, reflecting factors such as how much heavier EVs are than comparable gasoline vehicles.
The researchers also project that tire-wear emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles decline over time, partly reflecting the changing vehicle mix as electrification grows.
## Why the shift is happening
Two trends drive the projected change.
First, total vehicle activity matters. Even if individual vehicles get cleaner at the tailpipe, a growing fleet and more miles traveled can keep particle pollution stubbornly high.
Second, weight matters. Many EVs carry large battery packs. That can raise vehicle mass, which can increase tire abrasion. At the same time, EVs often reduce brake-wear particles because regenerative braking recovers energy and can reduce reliance on friction brakes.
The result is a changing pollution profile. Tailpipe-related particulate emissions can fall sharply, but tires and road-related emissions remain.
## Wider context: non-exhaust pollution is becoming the main concern
Separate research in Europe has also pointed to a broader transition already underway: as exhaust standards tighten and more vehicles electrify, non-exhaust sources make up most traffic-related particulate emissions in many common driving conditions.
This is also becoming a policy focus. Europe’s Euro 7 rules, for example, expand attention beyond tailpipes and include new requirements aimed at non-exhaust emissions, especially from brakes. Even with improved brake technology, researchers generally expect tire and road wear to be harder to reduce without changes to vehicles, tires, speeds, and driving patterns.
## What could reduce the impact
Researchers and regulators increasingly point to a mix of technical and practical steps:
- Lighter vehicles, including smaller battery packs where feasible and improved battery energy density.
- Tire innovations that maintain safety and grip while reducing wear rates.
- Managing real-world driving conditions that increase abrasion, including aggressive acceleration and higher speeds.
- Transportation planning that reduces total miles traveled, such as better public transit and safer walking and cycling networks.
The new projections do not argue against electrification. Instead, they highlight that as EV adoption accelerates, air-quality strategies may need to expand beyond tailpipes to the particles produced where rubber meets the road.
AI Perspective
EVs can deliver large health gains by cutting exhaust pollution, especially in dense cities and near busy roads. But the next stage of cleaner transport will likely depend more on reducing vehicle weight, tire wear, and total traffic than on powertrain changes alone. The study is a reminder that “zero tailpipe” does not mean “zero pollution,” and that solutions may need to combine engineering with smarter mobility choices.
